# What is a Theory of Change? A **Theory of Change (ToC)** is a structured way of describing how and why a particular change is expected to happen. It maps out the steps between what a service or project *does* and the change it *wants to see*. It shows the links between activities, outputs, outcomes, and longer-term impacts — so we can track whether we’re on the right path and adapt when we’re not. That might sound quite formal, but it’s actually something we all do, often without realising. *** ## Everyday theories of change Think of the last time you tried to set yourself up for a good start to your morning. You possibly did something like this: * Set your alarm early * Planned time for a stretch or a walk * Made space for breakfast before leaving the house Why? Because over time, you’ve developed a theory (even if unspoken) that says:\ \&#xNAN;**“If I get up early and have time to ease into the day, I’ll feel more grounded and less rushed.”** That’s a theory of change. It’s based on past experience, a sense of cause and effect, and a belief that one thing leads to another. But it’s also not guaranteed. Some mornings, that alarm rings… and things don't go to plan! *** ## Why a ToC needs testing, too A good Theory of Change recognises that things don’t always go as expected. It invites us to ask: * Are our assumptions holding true? * Did our action (setting the alarm) lead to the output (getting up early)? * Did the output lead to the outcome (starting the day feeling calm and in control)? * What other factors got in the way (e.g. traffic jams, sudden responsibilities, a bad night’s sleep)? By mapping this out in a transparent way, a Theory of Change gives us a shared starting point for learning, helping teams reflect, adapt, and make better decisions as they go. --- # Agent Instructions: Querying This Documentation If you need additional information that is not directly available in this page, you can query the documentation dynamically by asking a question. Perform an HTTP GET request on the current page URL with the `ask` query parameter: ``` GET https://play.equal.care/evaluation-framework/the-toolbox/theory-of-change/what-is-a-theory-of-change.md?ask= ``` The question should be specific, self-contained, and written in natural language. The response will contain a direct answer to the question and relevant excerpts and sources from the documentation. Use this mechanism when the answer is not explicitly present in the current page, you need clarification or additional context, or you want to retrieve related documentation sections.